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5 Things to know
Will Egypt’s Strongman Make It Official?
Egyptians head to the polls later this month. But with President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi seemingly assured of victory, it’s already clear that the big story for Egypt is not the election, but what comes next – an effort to extend presidential terms and formalize the country’s autocracy, writes Michael Wahid Hanna in the Washington Post.
Sisi’s regime “has sought to squelch any potential opposition activity before it becomes an emerging or credible threat. This repression has gone beyond obvious political targets and has produced a stultifying environment in which prosecutors have initiated outlandish legal act
“Such an environment does not set the stage for a convincing renewal of the Sisi regime’s legitimacy. But that is not the purpose of this month’s electoral exercise. Rather, it is a procedural hurdle to clear before the much more consequential effort of constitutional change.”
Sisi’s regime “has sought to squelch any potential opposition activity before it becomes an emerging or credible threat. This repression has gone beyond obvious political targets and has produced a stultifying environment in which prosecutors have initiated outlandish legal act
“Such an environment does not set the stage for a convincing renewal of the Sisi regime’s legitimacy. But that is not the purpose of this month’s electoral exercise. Rather, it is a procedural hurdle to clear before the much more consequential effort of constitutional change.”
The Al Capone Playbook for America’s Guns Crisis
Despite the outcry after the Florida school shooting last month – and the broad public support for tougher gun laws – it’s hard to imagine Congress introducing an outright ban on assault rifles. But lawmakers looking for a Second Amendment-friendly solution could try another approach to discouraging their use, tapping a playbook from the 1930s, suggests Stephen Mihm for Bloomberg View.
“Many reformers [in the 1930s] wanted an outright ban on machine guns, silencers, sawed-off shotguns, and other weapons in the gangster arsenal. But [then-Attorney General Homer] Cummings knew that could easily invite a constitutional challenge,” Mihm writes.
“So Cummings looked to another piece of federal legislation for inspiration: the Harrison Narcotics Tax Act of 1914, which imposed taxes on the production, distribution, and sale of opiates. Understanding full well that the power to tax was the power to destroy, Cummings proposed that Congress impose a $200 transfer tax each time someone bought or sold a machine gun -- or approximately $3,700 in today’s money.
“As gun control historian Adam Winkler has observed, this strategy was akin to the one used by the feds to take down Capone: tax evasion charges. And like that strategy, the gun tax worked. The popularity of these weapons effectively collapsed.”
“None of this amounted to a ban on machine guns: It was still possible to buy them even if almost no one did. And that’s the lesson for today. If Congress is leery about trampling on gun rights but wants to do something about assault rifles, perhaps they should take some inspiration from Homer Cummings.”
“Many reformers [in the 1930s] wanted an outright ban on machine guns, silencers, sawed-off shotguns, and other weapons in the gangster arsenal. But [then-Attorney General Homer] Cummings knew that could easily invite a constitutional challenge,” Mihm writes.
“So Cummings looked to another piece of federal legislation for inspiration: the Harrison Narcotics Tax Act of 1914, which imposed taxes on the production, distribution, and sale of opiates. Understanding full well that the power to tax was the power to destroy, Cummings proposed that Congress impose a $200 transfer tax each time someone bought or sold a machine gun -- or approximately $3,700 in today’s money.
“As gun control historian Adam Winkler has observed, this strategy was akin to the one used by the feds to take down Capone: tax evasion charges. And like that strategy, the gun tax worked. The popularity of these weapons effectively collapsed.”
“None of this amounted to a ban on machine guns: It was still possible to buy them even if almost no one did. And that’s the lesson for today. If Congress is leery about trampling on gun rights but wants to do something about assault rifles, perhaps they should take some inspiration from Homer Cummings.”
The Lesson from Italy? Europe is “Nearly Ungovernable”
The populist success in Italy’s election Sunday was about more than Italian politics, writes Helen Thompson in The New York Times. It proved that the political center is as good as dead in Europe.
“Since the Maastricht Treaty was signed in 1992, establishing the European Union and laying the groundwork for the creation of the euro, policy on a range of issues from budgets to asylum have been taken beyond the control of democratically elected national governments,” Thompson says.
“At the same time, participation in the eurozone has required governments to forsake policy tools that their predecessors had used during times of economic crisis. Since 2010, eurozone membership can also demand acquiescence to the European Central Bank, which can essentially ask for and veto national economic legislation.”
“The result? Much of Europe has become nearly ungovernable. As voters across the Continent see their ability to influence policy taken away, they have lashed out, neutering the traditional center and giving rise to disruptive populists. Italy’s election, in other words, says much about everything that’s wrong with the European Union.”
Why Americans Should Care About Trump’s Tariffs
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US allies are upset. The top economist quit. Trump doesn't care.
President Donald Trump's demand that new tariffs be slapped on steel and aluminum imports has spooked markets, prompted his chief economist's resignation, rattled major US allies and widened a rift with establishment Republicans.
None of that stopped Trump from moving forward with his plan Thursday to erect 25% and 10% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports respectively, as he signed two tariff proclamations at the White House on Thursday, surrounded by steel and aluminum workers.
"A strong steel and aluminum industry are vital to our national security -- absolutely vital. Steel is steel, you don't have steel you don't have a country," Trump said Thursday, adding that foreign imports and dumping have led to "shuttered plants and mills" and the laying off of "millions of workers," overstating the job losses in those industries, which his own adviser put at under 100,000.
"This is not merely an economic disaster, but it's a security disaster we want to build our ships, we want to build our planes ... with steel and aluminum from our country," Trump said. "We're finally taking action to correct this long overdue problem. Today I'm defending America's national security by placing tariffs on foreign imports of steel and aluminum."
But in a shift from recent plans, Trump will exempt Canada and Mexico from the tariffs and allow other US allies to petition for similar exemptions.
The NAFTA trading partners will be exempted while the three countries continue to renegotiate that free trade agreement and a senior administration official also cited the "security relationship" between the three countries as a rationale for their exemption.
Those exclusions are expected to quell some of the uproar, but could still set off a trade war between the US and several countries -- a battle Trump insists the US can win even as some of his closest advisers worry the tariffs could hurt the growing American economy. But the prospect of additional country exclusions could also lead Trump to increase the tariff rate on other countries, a senior administration official warned.
Trump is imposing the tariffs using a rarely employed trade provision known as Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, claiming a national security rationale for protecting the domestic steel and aluminum industries. Anticipating attacks on that legal basis, a senior administration official insisted the rationale was "unassailable" and stressed that national security includes both national defense and economic security.
But the President also framed his decision along political lines on Thursday, just days before he heads to Pittsburgh -- the heart of steel country -- for a rally aimed at boosting a struggling Republican congressional campaign.
"I'm delivering on a promise I made during the campaign and a promise I've been making for a good part of my life," Trump said as he prepared to sign the tariff proclamations.
It's not clear what political effect the order would have in the Pennsylvania race. The Democratic candidate in the race supports Trump's tariff proposal.
The move is expected to be questioned and countered, and could further put the US at odds with the international community.
Coming on the same day that 11 US allies -- but not the US -- sign a landmark Asia-Pacific trade agreement, the move on tariffs only underscores Trump's embrace of the protectionist policies he believes helped him win the presidency.
In the US, Trump faced a stiff rebuke from trade groups representing retailers and manufacturers who are top consumers of steel and aluminum. He also faced continued criticism from within his own party, most notably House Speaker Paul Ryan who continued to lament Trump's move -- even as he applauded the exemptions for Canada and Mexico.
"I am pleased that the President has listened to those who share my concerns and included an exemption for some American allies, but it should go further. We will continue to urge the administration to narrow this policy so that it is focused only on those countries and practices that violate trade law," Ryan said. "Our economy and our national security are strengthened by fostering free trade with our allies and promoting the rule of law."
The country exclusions marked a shift in the administration's thinking in recent days, after the President's trade adviser Peter Navarro said Sunday he did not expect any countries to be exempted from the tariffs.
Pressed about the change, a senior administration official rejected the change as a "softening" and instead touted the flexibility built into the tariff proclamations Trump is issuing.
The tariff signing came after days of confusion over how the President would move forward. On Thursday morning, the situation was still shrouded in uncertainty. Multiple officials awoke with no clear picture of what Trump was prepared to sign during the afternoon event. Advisers have been scrambling since last week to finalize details on the tariffs after Trump announced he would impose them during a meeting with industry executives.
Multiple senior administration officials familiar with the planning said Trump was prepared to sign something on Thursday afternoon -- though actual details of the document were still coming together through the morning. Advisers were prepared with a largely symbolic memo declaring Trump's intent to take action on steel tariffs in case a more substantive order wasn't final.
But by midday it appeared that formal language imposing new tariffs was ready to sign. Trump told reporters in the Cabinet Room that certain countries would be excluded, including Canada and Mexico, and kept open the possibility of excluding other nations like Australia, which are important national security allies.
"I'll have a right to go up or down, depending on the country, and I'll have a right to drop out countries or add countries," Trump said.
The confusion on Thursday in the hours leading up to the signing was an exclamation point to cap off a week of disarray within the White House sparked by a President eager to swiftly move forward with the tariffs -- even as the policy was still being written.
Further disarray
The scramble over the tariffs has propelled the White House into further disarray over the past week. Trump's surprise announcement has already spooked markets, caused a rift with his closest allies on Capitol Hill, and prompted the resignation of his top economist Gary Cohn.
"He may be a globalist, but I still like him," Trump said Thursday of Cohn, who was sitting in the room and announced earlier this week he is resigning as director of the National Economic Council. "He is seriously a globalist, there is no question. But in his own way he's a nationalist because he loves our country."
On Wednesday and Thursday, aides described rapid-pace scheduling changes as Trump applied pressure on his staff to finish writing the tariff order.
Initially, aides had planned for a noon event on Thursday before moving the time to 3:30 p.m. ET. Facing persistent questions over the legality of the move, the event was pulled from the schedule, but on Thursday morning it was back on the schedule and Trump was previewing it himself on Twitter.
The effort among US allies and Republican lawmakers on Capitol Hill to stop Trump from moving forward with his tariff proposal continued into Thursday -- further underscoring the uncertainty about how Trump would act.
Top Republican lawmakers and the leaders from major US trading partners have resisted the tariffs plan and in recent days were flooded with phone calls from foreign allies trying to stop Trump's tariff plan.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke on Thursday with the top two congressional Republicans -- House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell -- to discuss the matter, Trudeau's office said.
More the 100 GOP members of Congress wrote Trump on Wednesday urging him to "reconsider the idea of broad tariffs to avoid unintended negative consequences."
Despite the exemptions, the tariffs could lead to retaliation from certain countries. The European Union on Wednesday detailed a list of US-made goods that it would subject to reciprocal tariffs if Trump follows through with his plan. China also indicated it was preparing an appropriate response.
Trump was unmoved by those threats, instead declaring trade wars "easy to win" as he moved forward to implement a key campaign promise.
Trump accepts offer to meet Kim Jong Un
President Donald Trump has agreed to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the White House announced, setting the scene for an unprecedented encounter between two nations that only recently threatened to wipe each other out.
The talks would be the first between a sitting US president and a North Korean leader and will take place by May, according to South Korea's national security adviser, Chung Eui-yong, who delivered the invitation to Trump after a visit by his delegation to Pyongyang earlier this week. Chung said Kim had offered to put Pyongyang's nuclear and missile program on the table.
The White House said Trump had agreed to the encounter. "He will accept the invitation to meet with Kim Jong Un at a place and time to be determined," said White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders.
Trump's decision, after a year in which the two have repeatedly traded insults, is a remarkable breakthrough. It brings the North Korean regime close to its long-desired aim of recognition on the international stage, and offers Trump the tantalizing prospect of a historic diplomatic victory. But the consequences of such a high-stakes gamble remain hard to predict.
The South Korean delegation, which landed in Washington, D.C. for a debriefing Thursday on the North-South talks, was careful to praise Trump's influence over the developments. Chung said the US President's "leadership" and his administration's pressure on the North Korean regime had "brought us to this juncture."
White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said in a statement that Trump "greatly appreciates the nice words" of the delegation and South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
"He will accept the invitation to meet with Kim Jong Un at a place and time to be determined. We look forward to the denuclearization of North Korea. In the meantime, all sanctions and maximum pressure must remain."
Trump tweeted that "great progress" had been made but there would be no prospect of lifting sanctions until a deal was reached.
'Almost miraculous'
South Korea's President Moon described the announcement as "historic" and thanked both leaders for seeking a diplomatic solution to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
"This is an almost miraculous event; my administration will prepare toward the May meeting with utmost diligence," he said in remarks read out in Seoul by a Blue House spokesman
Geng Shuang, a spokesman at China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said the development was positive, and it was a moment to show "political courage." But he stressed that China would continue to maintain sanctions on North Korea until a political settlement was reached.
Other regional powers reacted cautiously. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe talked to President Donald Trump on the phone to reiterate the necessity of maintaining pressure on North Korea.
Abe, briefing reporters after the call, said that the US and Japan had agreed to "keep putting maximum pressure until North Korea takes concrete actions toward denuclearization."
Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said her government welcomed "any dialogue with North Korea" but warned that "North Korea has a history of making agreements and then failing to honor them."
Bishop said that, during any talks, Pyongyang must abide by its United Nations obligations to refrain from nuclear and missile tests.
Rapid development
The stunning announcement was the culmination of a diplomatic whirlwind that began with the invitation of a North Korean delegation to attend the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. That event became the venue for a series of carefully orchestrated diplomatic overtures, which were reciprocated with a visit by a South Korean delegation to Pyongyang.
During the visit, Kim reportedly joked over dinners of Korean hotpot and cold noodles. At one meeting, he said previous missile tests had caused Moon to schedule early morning national security meetings. "I decided today (to freeze the tests) so he will not lose sleep anymore," he said, according to a South Korean presidential official.
Kim and the officials shared several bottles of wine, liquor made of ginseng and Pyongyang soju, the official said. "The bottles kept coming," said another administrative source who had official knowledge of the meeting.
The alcohol-fueled diplomacy ended in dramatic fashion at the White House on Thursday.
Chung, the South Korean national security adviser, arrived at the White House shortly before 2:30 p.m. to meet with his US counterpart, H.R. McMaster.
Just minutes after 5 p.m., Trump poked his head in the White House briefing room to tell reporters South Korea would be making a "major announcement."
Chung's delegation appeared outside the West Wing about two hours later. In a brief statement to reporters, Chung said Kim "expressed his eagerness to meet President Trump as soon as possible."
The North Korean leader had told the South Koreans "he is committed to denuclearization" and pledged that North Korea would "refrain from any further nuclear or missile tests," Chung said. Kim also told the South Koreans he understands that the US and South Korea would move forward with their joint military exercises later this year.
Moments later, the White House confirmed that Trump had accepted Kim's invitation to meet
There are many details to be ironed out before any meeting could take place, not least the location. The Panmunjom truce village in the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), one possible venue, hosted meetings between North and South Korea in the run-up to the Winter Olympics.
Sanctions to remain in place
Since Trump came into office, the US has leveled some of its most significant and far-reaching sanctions against North Korea and has also succeeded in pressuring China to further isolate the regime. That pressure would not abate as the US heads toward the historic talks, the White House said.
Trump reiterated the US stance on sanctions. "Kim Jong Un talked about denuclearization with the South Korean Representatives, not just a freeze," he tweeted. "Also, no missile testing by North Korea during this period of time. Great progress being made but sanctions will remain until an agreement is reached. Meeting being planned!"
Kim Jong Un talked about denuclearization with the South Korean Representatives, not just a freeze. Also, no missile testing by North Korea during this period of time. Great progress being made but sanctions will remain until an agreement is reached. Meeting being planned!
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